"Notable Quotes"

"The IPCC had dumped our report that the glaciers have not retreated abnormally. Now, with the truth out in open, the IPCC should dump its own report which was based on mere speculation,"

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V K Raina

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"Notable Quotes"

"To recap, the available evidence indicates that the IPCC authors of this section relied upon a secondhand, unreferreed source which turned out to be unreliable, and failed to identify this source. As a result, the IPCC has predicted the likely loss of most or all of Himalaya's glaciers by 2035 with apparently no peer-reviewed scientific studies to justify such a prediction and at least one scientific study (Kotlyakov) saying that such a disappearance is too fast by a factor of ten! "

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John Nielsen-Gammon


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"To our surprise.."

FROM-The Hindu
'Weather variations, not global warming cause glacier melt'

New Delhi (PTI): Himalayan glaciers, including the world's highest battlefield Siachen, are melting due to variations in weather and not because of global warming, Jammu University scientists have claimed.

"The field studies from other glaciers in India also corroborate the fact that inter and intra-annual variations in weather parameters have more impact on the glaciers of northwest Himalayas, rather than any impact due to global warming," they said.

Geologists R K Ganjoo and M N Koul of Jammu University's Regional Centre for Field Operations and Research of Himalayan Glaciology visited the Siachen glacier to record changes in its snout last summer.

"To our surprise, the Siachen glacier valley does not preserve evidences of glaciation older than mid-Holocene, suggesting that the glacier must have advanced and retreated simultaneously several times in the geological past, resulting in complete obliteration and modification of older evidences," they said reporting their findings in 'Current Science'.

Ganjoo and Koul dubbed as "hype" some earlier studies which suggested that the Himalayan glaciers were melting fast and caused serious damage to the Himalayan ecosystem.

There is sufficient field and meteorological evidence from the other side of Karakoram mountains that corroborate the fact that glaciers in this part of the world are not affected by global warming, they said.

"Overwhelming field geomorphological evidences suggest poor response of the Siachen glacier to global warming. The snout of the Siachen glacier of 2008 has retreated by about 8-10 metres since 1995, making an average retreat of 0.6 metre per year," the scientists said.

Ganjoo said that the east part of the Siachen glacier showed faster withdrawal of the snout that is essentially due to ice-calving, a phenomenon that holds true for almost all major glaciers in the Himalayas and occurs irrespective of global warming.

The west part of the Siachen has reduced due to the action of melting water released from the retreated tributary glacier, he said.

Ganjoo contended the Siachen glacier shows hardly any retreat in its middle part and thus defies the "hype" of rapid melting.

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Boy What a Relief !

"For those who have been concerned about extremely abrupt changes in these ocean current patterns, that's good news.”


I am so relieved ! The kiddies playing with their computer games have decided my house here in Florida is safe for a couple more years-I guess the move to the mountains is on hold for a bit. After all this is a "monumental study"!



FROM- Red Orbit

Glaciers Not Melting As Fast As Once Thought

The world’s glaciers are indeed melting, but a monumental study released Thursday in the journal Science discovered that it might not happen as quickly as once thought.

The study notes that there are more gradual shifts in the current systems in the North Atlantic Ocean, instead of a rapid meltdown that could cause swift climate changes to Europe and other places.

The research, based on a "general circulation model" that replicated the Earth's climate 21,000 years at the height of the last Ice Age, indicates that although huge changes in the ocean current systems are probable, they might take place more gradually than originally thought.More...

The current pace of glacial melt will "give ecosystems more time to adjust to new conditions," stated study coauthor Peter Clark, a professor of geosciences at Oregon State University, to AFP.

"Our data still show that current is slowing, and may decline by 30 percent by the end of this century," Clark said. “That's very significant, and it could cause substantial climate change. But it's not as abrupt as some concerns that it could shut down within a few decades."

"For those who have been concerned about extremely abrupt changes in these ocean current patterns, that's good news.”

Clark and his colleagues built a huge computer model that simulated the atmospheric and oceanic circumstances of the last ice age and the shifts that resulted in Earth's last global warming 14,500 years ago.

"Being able to successfully simulate thousands of years of past climate for the first time with a comprehensive climate model is a major scientific achievement," said Bette Otto-Bliesner, an atmospheric scientist and climate modeler at National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) and co-author of the Science report.

"This is an important step toward better understanding how the world's climate could change abruptly over the coming centuries with increasing melting of the ice caps."

The power of computation on the experiment was so huge that it took more than a year to run, Clark said. It was the longest experiment of its kind that ever reviewed past climate with such specifications.

Beginning 21,000 years ago, the research team replicated the conditions in the Bølling-Allerød warming, which happened 14,500 years ago. The replication matched with temperature, sea level and glacial coverage records collected from this geologic period.

The simulations helped identify the three environmental factors as leading causes of the Bølling-Allerød warming: an surge in atmospheric carbon dioxide, the re-animation of delayed heat-moving ocean currents and a bulky buildup of subsurface heat in the ocean while those currents were not moving.

Huge amounts of water then surged into the North Atlantic and reduced the ocean's salt levels, which are important, as they power the convection current that moves warm tropical water north and cooler water south.

The fresh water caused the current to halt, chilling the North Atlantic area and sending heat to southern waters. The cooler temperatures slowed down the melting of the glaciers and gradually the ocean current began moving again.

The replication found that as a result, ocean circulation came to a stop. Lacking warm water moving to the north, the North Atlantic chilled and heat was stored in southern waters. As a result, glacial melt also halted.

"All that stored heat is released like a volcano, and poured out over decades," Liu said. "That warmed up Greenland and melted (arctic) sea ice."

While the model could not figure out the speed of ice melting in the period, it determined that both an unhurried decrease and a quick end to melt run-off amounted in the same result: a 15-degree warming.

"That happened in the past," Liu said. "The question is, in the future, if you have a global warming and Greenland melts, will it happen again?"

The experiment does not alter worries about global warming. Temperatures are still anticipated to rise from four to 11 degrees by the end of the century, and the study agrees that many of the world's climate models are correct.

"The findings from this study, which also match other data we have on recorded climate change, are an important validation of the global climate models," Clark said. "They seem to be accurately reflecting both the type and speed of changes that have taken place in the past, and that increases our ability to trust their predictions of the future."

"We want to know what will happen in the future, especially if the climate will change abruptly," said Liu.

The researchers will continue to replicate the environment, which has simulated part of the last 21,000 years. With 4 million more processor hours to go, the replications will eventually meet the present and 200 years into the future.

"Notable Quotes"

But in the rugged western corner of the plateau, the story is different, according to a new study. Among legendary peaks of Mt. Everest like K2 and Nanga Parbat, glaciers with a penthouse view of the world are growing, and have been for almost three decades.

"These are the biggest mid-latitude glaciers in the world," John Shroder of the University of Nebraska-Omaha said. "And all of them are either holding still, or advancing."

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