July 28, 2009

Exporting fudged ice

Below are excerpts from an article in the Toronto Star - "Arctic's 'canary in a coal mine' " I thought it was fascinating for both the honesty of the scientist quoted and the absolute lack of any scientific proof of "climate change".

The first excerpt is about one of the main purpose of this well funded mission is intended to investigate, plankton:

"If a Pacific species was established in the Arctic, this would really be news," he says. "But we have not detected this yet. What could happen in this scenario is that, if the invader out-competes the native species, this could lead to fundamental changes in ecosystem function

As you can see we are not yet in any danger of this canary. But don't worry there is reason to panic as the writer makes sure to tell us:

As concern builds over rising temperatures, the once ice-bound Northwest Passage is opening up to scientists eager to get a better look at what is happening to a region thought to be most vulnerable to early damage from climate change.

Despite the fact that what they are investigating isn't a problem "concern builds", if not the plankton. Perhaps the next scientist will explain why we should be concerned:

When the Soviet Union collapsed, and relations between Washington and Moscow warmed, the U.S. military was less worried about potential enemies knowing where its subs had been and declassified the ice data. It seemed to show the ice was thinning dramatically.

Seemed to show? Please do explain.

"Nobody really quite noticed the submarines were running across the outside edges of the Canadian archipelago," the islands scattered across Canada's Far North, "where for all we know, the ice was getting thicker," Eert says.

"The ice doesn't stay constantly thick over the whole area. It moves around. So if you take measurements only in one spot, and make global conclusions from that, you might be going wrong."

Well jeez making global conclusions from incomplete data doesn't seem like a smart idea to me either, might want to tell some of your colleagues about that- but it gets better:

After years of reports that vast areas of Arctic ice are melting as the seawater below, and air above, warm up, scientists have discovered that dramatic changes in the past three years are the result of shifting winds, perhaps caused by climate change .

Enormous amounts of ice have "been exported from the Arctic," driven by winds that are shifting as the climate changes, which pushed the ice into ocean currents that delivered it to the North Atlantic, Eert says.

"The multi-year ice in the polar pack didn't melt in the Arctic Ocean,'' she says. "It moved out and what's left in the Arctic is thinner than it was."

That doesn't mean some Arctic ice isn't disappearing altogether, just that the process is not as simple as some reports suggest, Eert says.

Old ice that has shifted south from Greenland may have a counter-effect on the climate, which is just one of the many pieces of a very complex jigsaw puzzle that scientists are trying to piece together as they attempt to predict the effects of global warming.

"The guys who are running the long-term climate models have a tough problem," Eert says. "They're looking at really long time scales, and as result they can't look at a lot of details for each year.

"In order to get the results before you die, you have to fudge some things. And what they fudge is the small-scale stuff. But it turns out that probably the small-scale stuff is important and fudging it gives you wrong answers."

So what have we learned. The plankton that would be a harbinger of disaster is not present, the data from submarines was misinterpeted,the thin ice is the result of shifting winds not melting, and the modellers are fudging in order to get the results they want before they die. Got to love this scientific proof! Not to mention the canary.

So in the end what is the conclusion of this article:

The latest maps show above-normal concentrations of ice across a huge region in western Hudson Bay and James Bay, while some areas farther north have less ice than usual. Deciding what that all means is above Pelland's pay grade

But not above ALGORE'S pay grade he'll tell you what it means "WE'RE GOING TO FRY, if we don't drown first"

1 comment:

  1. This is up there with the interview of Ashley Judd a few months ago. This is news? As I put it more like bats in the belfry.