May 26, 2009

CYBER WAG eats Tweedy ! Again.

(For the uninformed a CYBER WAG is a computer generated wild ass guess)

It is not unusual for our erstwhile climate modelers to be responsible for the potential deaths of countess species, not the least among them a
large portion of the human race. Their forecast have set off a bonanza of research (and the necessary funding) to investigate the potential impact of their computer model projections on everything from increased kidney stones to polar bear extinctions.

For some reason the CYBER WAG modellers find particular interest in going after birds, the rarer the better. We have reported on
just one case of this but the examples of the CYBER WAGs fetish for our feathered friends extinction have been reported in science journals world wide. The pace of extinctions is expected to increase as the Copenhagen Conference (the ritual pilgrimage of the CYBER WAGs coming in December) draws nearer.

Now the modellers and their well funded cohorts have set their eyes on the Hawaiian Islands. Actually not a bad idea, if you have to kill off species in the virtual make believe world why not do the real world investigation in paradise, right? Regardless they now have their eyes set on the already endangered Honeycreepers of Hawaii. Despite the name they actually are quite cute and we wish them well in escaping the clutches of CYBER WAG. Here from
Science Daily is the entire story of their eventual demise, but this brief excerpt is the obvious CYBER WAG death sentence of the Honeycreepers:

Unfortunately,” said study co-author, USGS scientist Dr. Dennis LaPointe, “this seasonal movement happens at the same time that mosquito populations soar at mid-elevations, which fuels high disease-transmission rates there. There’s a continuous source of disease-susceptible birds each fall.”
Although most disease transmission now occurs in these mid-elevation forests, this will change if the projected 3.6 degrees Fahrenheit (2 degrees Centigrade) raise in temperature occurs.
“With this kind of temperature change, about 60 to 96 percent of the high-elevation disease refuges would disappear,” said Atkinson. For example, available high-elevation forest habitat in the low-risk disease zone would likely decline by nearly 60 percent at Hanawi Natural Area Reserve on Maui to as much as 96 percent at Hakalau Forest National Wildlife Refuge on Hawaii Island. On other islands, such as Kauai, with lower elevations and no low-risk zones even now, predicted temperature changes would likely be catastrophic for remaining honeycreeper species.
“Right now, disease transmission in the mountains of Kaui is highly seasonal, but with temperature increases, disease would be able to be transmitted throughout most of the year,” said Atkinson.

So as we can clearly see our poor Honeycreeper's goose is cooked.


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