March 18, 2009

"Cyber WAG" Alert

Here we go again. Notice the terrible prediction. Notice too the prediction is also based on climate model output. A climate model is not scientific evidence of anything, it is a theory based upon the input of the modelers. If the input is wrong or as is absolutely the case, beyond the ability of the modelers to know the variables, then at best it is a guess. Yet they scare people, spend billions of dollars and restrict freedom based on what is nothing more than a cyber WAG.

from-Opposing Views

RESEARCH: Study Says Global Warming Could Devastate New York

Sea levels along the U.S. northeastern coastline could rise nearly twice as fast during this century than previously predicted, according to new research conducted by the Center for Ocean-Atmospheric Prediction Studies (COAPS) at Florida State University.

COAPS scientist Jianjun Yin, who led the research, analyzed ten climate models from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and calculated a 90 percent likelihood that sea levels along the northeast will exceed global sea levels by the end of the century.

According to the study’s official summary:

Yin and colleagues analysed climate projections from a set of global climate models under a variety of greenhouse-gas emission scenarios. They find that sea levels in the North Atlantic Ocean adjust to the projected slowing of the meridional overturning circulation. Their model projection attributes 15-23 cm of the rise in New York sea level by the year 2100 to changes in the North Atlantic Ocean circulation, compared with 36-51 cm of total sea-level rise in this location......”

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