FROM-Climate Science: Roger Pielke Sr.
Major Issues With The Realism Of The IPCC Models Reported By Graeme Stephens Of Colorado State University
Earth observations and moist processes
Slide 26
While it is expected that ‘ heavy precipitation events will contnue to become more frequent’, our predictive tools (either climate or NWP models) contain major biases that are symptomatic of unrealistc rain physics.
While I believe the changes that are likely to occur are primarily driven by changes in the large scale atmospheric flows, we have to conclude our models have little or no ability to make credible
projectons about the changing character of rain and cannot
conclusively test this hypothesis.
This model bias isn’t merely solved by higher resolution of
models – to the contrary, there are fundamental flaws in the
way rain is triggered in models on all scales. The consequence
to other aspects of the Earth system model is profound.
More...
Major Issues With The Realism Of The IPCC Models Reported By Graeme Stephens Of Colorado State University
Earth observations and moist processes
Slide 26
While it is expected that ‘ heavy precipitation events will contnue to become more frequent’, our predictive tools (either climate or NWP models) contain major biases that are symptomatic of unrealistc rain physics.
While I believe the changes that are likely to occur are primarily driven by changes in the large scale atmospheric flows, we have to conclude our models have little or no ability to make credible
projectons about the changing character of rain and cannot
conclusively test this hypothesis.
This model bias isn’t merely solved by higher resolution of
models – to the contrary, there are fundamental flaws in the
way rain is triggered in models on all scales. The consequence
to other aspects of the Earth system model is profound.
More...
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