AUSTRALIA
William Kininmonth - former Head National Climate Centre, Australian Bureau of Meteorology; former Australian delegate to World Meteorological Organization Commission for Climatology, Scientific and Technical Review
"Scientists' continuing inability to predict with confidence a season in advance should be cause for hesitation when projections of decades to centuries are made. Computer models are not reality and alarmist predictions have no sound basis." ....
.... The models systematically underestimate the magnitude of the overturning circulation and atmospheric energy transport. As a consequence, there is erroneous warming of the model troposphere. Deep equatorial convective clouds and the overturning atmospheric circulation of the Hadley Cells are critical processes necessary to distribute excess tropical solar radiation through the troposphere.
• The models systematically underestimate the poleward transport of energy by the ocean circulations. Although the ocean circulations transport only between 10 and 15 percent of the excess energy of the tropics, the spatial sea surface temperature distribution is dependent on the energy budget in the surface mixed layer and is a crucial determinant of the intensity of the atmospheric circulation.
• The models are inconsistent in their representation of longwave radiation at the earth's surface and, on average, overestimate the exchange in the tropics and underestimate the exchange over high latitudes. Net longwave radiation at the surface is the crucial interaction between greenhouse gases and the energetics of the climate system. The magnitudes of the differences between models and the systemic biases, when compared to the expected radiative forcing from increased greenhouse gas concentrations, make nonsense of computer projections of future climate.
• The models systematically underestimate the poleward transport of energy by the ocean circulations. Although the ocean circulations transport only between 10 and 15 percent of the excess energy of the tropics, the spatial sea surface temperature distribution is dependent on the energy budget in the surface mixed layer and is a crucial determinant of the intensity of the atmospheric circulation.
• The models are inconsistent in their representation of longwave radiation at the earth's surface and, on average, overestimate the exchange in the tropics and underestimate the exchange over high latitudes. Net longwave radiation at the surface is the crucial interaction between greenhouse gases and the energetics of the climate system. The magnitudes of the differences between models and the systemic biases, when compared to the expected radiative forcing from increased greenhouse gas concentrations, make nonsense of computer projections of future climate.
The models treat energy from the Sun the same as energy re-radiated back to the surface as a result of GHG absorption. This is incorrect, GHG related energy is just delayed solar energy whose forcing influence is already accounted for when it arrives. CO2 concentration changes operate by modifying the open loop response of the system and not by changing the stimulus. Counting the same energy twice violates Conservation of Energy and can cause closed loop models to over estimate the consequences of CO2 emissions and even predict unwarranted runaway effects. The primary effects CO2 concentration changes have are modifying the vertical distribution of energy capture, skewing the delay profile for the ultimate release of this captured energy and modifying the steady state amount of retained energy. It has no influence on the planetary energy balance, does not add energy to the system and does not retain any energy forever. There is a finite, but small, effect on the surface temperature, whose upper bound is about 0.7C if the CO2 is doubled, starting from temperature and CO2 levels as of 1750.
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