Falling Dominoes

In an earlier post I observed:

One of the big problems with the blindly following the AGW mantra is that people, industries institutions and governments are not and will continue to not look at the world as it is. In doing so we will make choices that could be contrary to our best interest.

and as to possible cooler temperatures:

This being so we would be preparing accordingly for such things as energy consumption (increased exploration etc, increasing farming in southern tier states,all the way down to budgeting for increased snow removal. But all this and a hundred other big and small things are being ignored or in some cases discouraged. We may in fact be traveling down the road in the wrong direction heading away from our best interest instead of towards them.

This is why as much as anything articles like this Report: Climate change could doom many Calif crops, bother me. This article is not just your ordinary run of the mill alarmist media having its way with lose facts, this is a representation of an actual report put out by real scientist at the University of California.

The report is about how the warming conditions will affect agriculture in California and here is a key:

A projection covering the next 30 years—the life span of most permanent crops—shows wine grapes faring well, but table grapes, almonds, walnuts and avocados suffering declines in yields.

Already, the current climate is either at or above the optimum temperatures, said David Lobell of Stanford University....

Inevitably various government agencies will use this and other such reports in order to establish policies. Local and federal agriculture departments will use such reports to advise growers, growers and other agriculture businesses will use such advice and information to plan their crops and hundreds of other contingencies big and small.

However something also recently happened that we know will have an impact on California agriculture for about the next thirty years. Not based upon computer game projections of future warming but the reality of historic observation. The Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) has switched to its negative phase. From NASA -Larger Pacific Climate Event Helps Current La Nina Linger.

Historically this does not mean warmer temperatures in California, but cooler. As Anthony Watts put it when this shift was first announced:

Look out California agriculture. The wine industry, fruits and nut growers will be hit with a shorter growing season and more threats of frost, among other things.

I am by no means an agriculture expert, countless dead house plants over the years will attest to that, but I am pretty sure that the agriculture industry prepares both short term and long term differently for cold versus warm weather forecasts. Some may even change the crops they grow in order to prepare for a warmer environment. I am also sure that not only farmers but all the related entities, financing, research, transportation and a host of other auxiliary tentacles to the agriculture industry will make plans on the best available forecasts.

Will NASA or NOAA or any of the other responsible(?) agencies that should advise the agriculture industry in California of this known threat throw up the red flag? How can they? Their entire focus, reputation not to mention funding is based on the idea that temperatures in California and everywhere else are going to rise. Do you think they are going to come out and tell everyone to hold up on the doom and gloom of California's agriculture, that the switch in the PDO is going to cause cooler, possibly significantly cooler temperatures. Do you honestly see them doing that? I hope so but consider this:

The new Secretary of the Department of Energy Steven Chu has as much as condemned California's agriculture to heat induced destruction 'We're looking at a scenario where there's no more agriculture in California,' that is the party line, that is the forecast.

They can say their projections are for decades in the future which is totally disenginuous. The fact is that very real research is being done based on their short term 10-30 year predictions, and this very real research is having very real policy and planning applications in very real peoples lives and we have just begun

I do not really blame the researchers at the University of California, they are just basing their projection on what the so called climate experts have told them will happen. This like countless studies through out the scientific community on a multitude of subjects is all predicated on the belief that the climate scientist, the modellers, know what they are talking about.

Like those giant lines of dominoes we watch with fascination, the climate modellers have set off a chain reaction of falling pieces which cascades through science knocking over ever more pieces. Now it has reached into the lives, livelihood and well being of all mankind. I hope they are happy, they may have no pistachios and wine to celebrate with though, the farmers will have prepared for the coming heat while the frost kills their crops.

Jer