from Roy Spencer PhD
The 800 Pound Gorilla in the Climate System
The issue of global warming has so many facets that it has always been difficult to concisely state the objections we skeptics have to the theory (yes, ‘theory’) that our present warmth is caused by all of you consumers out there driving your SUVs and eating Big Macs. What follows is a demonstration of my main objection.
The claim that global warming is due to people is indeed a valid hypothesis. Human activity produces carbon dioxide, carbon dioxide in the atmosphere is increasing, and CO2 is indeed a greenhouse gas. Ergo….
But how often in science is it decided that the first hypothesis to come along will forever be the only one allowed? That is effectively what the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has done.
Ever since the IPCC was formed twenty years ago, their intent has been to tie global warming to human greenhouse gas emissions. They have never seriously investigated potential natural sources of global warming…except to say they can’t think of any that are large enough to cause the warming.
They then run their climate models with tiny forcings, such as a tiny change in solar output, and then say, “See? Natural forcings can not explain warming…only increasing CO2 can!” This conclusion is then advertised with words like “this demonstrates that natural forcings can not explain global warming”.
As I keep emphasizing, though, this only shows how little we know about natural climate variability. The assumption that the climate system has always been in balance, with a constant temperature, until humans came along is just that: an assumption. There is no way to prove it because we do not have the global measurements needed to prove it...........
The issue of global warming has so many facets that it has always been difficult to concisely state the objections we skeptics have to the theory (yes, ‘theory’) that our present warmth is caused by all of you consumers out there driving your SUVs and eating Big Macs. What follows is a demonstration of my main objection.
The claim that global warming is due to people is indeed a valid hypothesis. Human activity produces carbon dioxide, carbon dioxide in the atmosphere is increasing, and CO2 is indeed a greenhouse gas. Ergo….
But how often in science is it decided that the first hypothesis to come along will forever be the only one allowed? That is effectively what the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has done.
Ever since the IPCC was formed twenty years ago, their intent has been to tie global warming to human greenhouse gas emissions. They have never seriously investigated potential natural sources of global warming…except to say they can’t think of any that are large enough to cause the warming.
They then run their climate models with tiny forcings, such as a tiny change in solar output, and then say, “See? Natural forcings can not explain warming…only increasing CO2 can!” This conclusion is then advertised with words like “this demonstrates that natural forcings can not explain global warming”.
As I keep emphasizing, though, this only shows how little we know about natural climate variability. The assumption that the climate system has always been in balance, with a constant temperature, until humans came along is just that: an assumption. There is no way to prove it because we do not have the global measurements needed to prove it...........
We do know that never once has increased CO2 resulted in increased temps.
ReplyDeleteNot even in the last 10 years.