I came across this rather frightening article in Africa Business Daily with the ominous title and opening:
Climate change to eat into Kenya’s tea productionFuture Climate Scenarios for Kenya’s Tea Growing Areas by Dr Peter Laderach, Dr Audberto Quiroga, Dr Jason Gordon, and Dr Anton Eitzinger. As is common practice in the scientific community these scientist are basing their findings and recommendations almost exclusivly on the output of hypothetical global climate models. Some excerpts from the study:
Climate change will drastically reduce Kenya’s tea production over the next 40 years with suitable lands being pushed further up the altitude, denting earnings from one of the country’s top hard currency sources.
Scientists from the International Centre for Tropical Agriculture (CIAT) said during a global conference that land under tea will reduce by 42 per cent by 2050, creating excess capacity in tea factories dependent on the catchments.
Methodology C • Current climate from historical climate generationGlobal circulation models as future climate Suitability prediction...They give a list of all the GCM's they used to reach findings such as:
..Future climate C• Global circulation models (GCM)Calibrated in the past (using time-series)and projected to the future >> UNCERTAINTY Emission scenarios = Political uncertainty Global Circulation Models = Scientific uncertainty• Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change - IPCC (http://www.ipcc.ch/)Fourth Assessment Report, based on the results of 21 global climate models(GCMs)...
...Future climate: Downscaling of GCM C• Delta (Hay et al. 2007) – Base climate: WORLDCLIM, Used in most studies of CC. – Take original GCM surfaces (time series) – Calculate averages for baseline & specific periods – Calculate anomalies – Interpolate anomalies – Add anomalies to WORLDCLIM
the annual rainfall increases from 1658 millimeters to 1732 millimeters in 2050• Temperatures increase and the average increase is 2.3 ºC passing through an increment of 1.0 ºC in 2020• The maximum temperature of the year increases from 26.6°C to 29°C in 2050• The minimum temperature of the year increases from 8.9°C to 11.1°C in 2050...or details of our future world such as:
In 2020 the municipalities Meru and Nithi will have larger increase in precipitation • In 2050 Kisii and Nyamira will have the largest increase in precipitation....Please note the use of the word "will" in the study, as if the output of these models is ordained from on high. And from such hypothetical computer model output they reach the following conclusions:
...Regional changes in the mean annual temperature D • The increase by 2020 is between 0.7 and 0.9 ºC • The increase by 2050 is between 2.1 and 2.2 ºC The mean annual temperature will increase progressively
In Kenya the yearly and monthly rainfall will increase and the yearly and monthly minimum and maximum temperatures will increase by 2020 and progressively increase by 2050.• The implications are that the distribution of suitability’s within the current tea-growing areas in Kenya for tea production in general will decrease quite seriously by 2050.• The optimum tea-producing zone is currently at an altitude between 1500 and 2100 masl and will by 2050 increase to an altitude between 2000 and 2300 masl.• Compared with today, by 2050 areas at altitudes between 1400 and 2000 masl will suffer the highest decrease in suitability and the areas around 2300 masl the highest increase in suitability.• A comparison of potential diversification crops recommended by the project show that coffee perform similar to tea and would not be a good alternative crop. For more than 90% of these sites maize and cabbage will remain constant and pea will be much more suitable on 97% of this sites. Passion fruit will be much more suitable on 51% of this sites and banana on 14% of these sites more suitable for 2050.
Extrapolating from Kenya's future climate which exists only within a computer, these people are setting in motion a plan to change the way farmers produce "one of the country’s top hard currency sources". From the article
The scientists were making presentations at the Tea Research Foundation of Kenya in Kericho. The seminar was organised by the Ethical Tea Partnership (ETP) and the German International Cooperation (GIZ).
The report says the two organisations aim to increase Kenyan tea producer’s resilience to climate change, to secure their livelihoods and make them more environmentally and economically sustainable.
The two partners will over the next three years train 10,000 farmers on the most appropriate adaptation techniques,” they said....Among these techniques will be diversifying their crops to adapt to the hypothetical climate change which exists solely within computer models and the unscientific projections of a scientific community who is no longer grounded in reality.