June 8, 2009
"Predictions are not the same thing as forecasts. Even short term weather forecasts are notoriously inaccurate so why should a prediction be any better? Case in point: it’s supposed to be sunny today (Sunday) yet it is pouring down at a time of year when sunshine ’should’ be highly predictable. Logic dictates that you must discount predictions of this kind in favor of empirical evidence. It is not a choice. Similarly, peer review is not the same as evidence. Peer review can have the effect of being little more than the modern day equivalent of the Catholic Church making poor old Galileo’s life hell. "