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June 22, 2009

Russian Math






Dmitry Medvedev proposed his greenhouse plans for the following decade:



He wants to increase the production of greenhouse gases, primarily CO2, by 30 percent by the year 2020. That would still be 10-15 percent below the 1990 levels. The drop in the early 1990s was sudden but Russia has returned to a sustainable growth curve.

Medvedev vowed not to reduce "Russia's development potential": he doesn't plan to jump on the bandwagon of idiotically suicidal politicians who have contaminated the political institutions across the world. I must say that on the other hand, his plan is pretty bullish because it assumes a 2.5 percent annual growth rate which is probably translated to a 3.5 percent GDP growth rate, given the tight link between the two figures and the natural technological ability of the economies to increase their fuel efficiency by a percentage point every year. Many other nations are surely planning a much smaller GDP growth in the years to come.

I am confident that most Russians still view the coal and other sources of CO2 as a key measure of their economic might - a quantity that has deteriorated in the last 20 years, relatively to the whole world. So they're much more eager to raise their CO2 output - at the time when many others are talking about insane plans to reduce CO2 output by 50 or 80 percent.

For example, India and other poor countries propose to use the Copenhagen conference in December 2009 to destroy 40 percent of the developed economies, as measured by their CO2 output, by 2020 relatively to 1990.
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