June 5, 2009

Hurry up and wait

FROM-Digital Diatribes

(Excerpt from)

June 2009 Update on Global (and Regional) Temperature – RSS

What’s Happening with the various trend lines?

60-month: -0.307510 (-3.69 degrees per Century). Looks to decline to the steepest negative value since the mid-80’s soon.

120-month: +0.058601 (0.70 degrees warming per Century). Now back to the level seen in June 2008, and expected to go negative by year end.

180-month: 0.077408 (0.93/C). Lowest slope since the period ending September 1995. This could go as low as 0.05 by the end of the year.

240-month: 0.151595 (1.82/C). This is a steeper slope, but is now at its lowest point since July 2001.

300-month: 0.163786 (1.97/C). This is the lowest since August 2003. The 25-year slope is the steepest of the measures.

360-month: 0.126892 (1.52/C). Lowest of the 6 observed data points.

What does it all mean? Well, we have cooled recently. But those things can happen. The 12+ falt period is getting long enough to become statistically relevant, but looking at the RSS data set just doesn’t give us a large enough data set to compare likelihood. Longer term periods definitely show that we have warmed over a lengthier period of time – that’s not really in dispute. However, any claims of acceleration in warming are simply false, as can be shown by the fact that ALL trend line measures are declining. If warming were accelerating, we would see slopes increasing.

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