The Watch

Watching the North Pole Melt at an accelerating pace

Year with Largest overall ice extent this day
Year with Least melt this day
Year with Least overall Ice Extent this day
Year with Largest melt this day

Julian Day 138 -May 18

------- Extent (km^2)----Difference (km^2)
2003 – 12,106,094……..……….-38,120
2004 – 11,669,063……..……….-11,875
2005 – 12,033,438……..……….-25,000
2006 – 11,592,656……..……….-25,782
2007 – 11,878,906………………-6,785
2008 – 12,088,750………..…….-44,844
2009 – 12,213,281………..…….-91,875


Julian Day 137 - May 17

------- Extent (km^2)----Difference (km^2)
2003 – 12,144,219……..……….-25,156
2004 – 11,680,938……..……….-45,312
2005 – 12,058,438……..……….-20,625
2006 – 11,618,438……..……….-67,343
2007 – 11,885,781………………-19,532
2008 – 12,133,594………..…….-48,594
2009 – 12,305,156………..…….-84,219


Julian Day 136 May 16

------- Extent (km^2)----Difference (km^2)
2003 – 12,169,375……..……….-40,313
2004 – 11,726,250……..……….-48,750
2005 – 12,079,063……..……….-29,687
2006 – 11,685,781……..……….-68,907
2007 – 11,905,313………………-45,312
2008 – 12,182,188………..…….-59,531
2009 – 12,389,375………..…….-52,031

Sea-ice notes this week:

·2008, which has been runner-up to 2009 in the JAXA time series since Julian Day 129, sees a drop in extent of over 400,000km^2 over the next 5 days, bringing 2008 to 4th place, behind 2003 and 2005, by Julian Day 141.

·2005 has a remarkably slow melt rate for the 10-day period of 5/12-5/21 with an average daily decline of only 20,016km^2, however, the following 10 day period from 5/22-5/31 the melt rate jumps to 59,500km^2. The average daily melt rate for 2005 from May 1st through June 30th is 50,089km^2.

·The melt rate for May 2009 through the first 16 days of the month is 46,250km^2. If this rate continues over the next week by May 23rd 2009 may slip into 2nd place behind 2003 for the first time since April 16th. However, current model runs show a pattern developing over the sub-arctic unfavorable for large drops in daily extent beginning mid-week with below normal temperatures and cloudy skies expected over the Barents and Labrador Seas.

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